After almost a decade of tightening the screws on Cuba, the Obama White House reversed course in April, ordering the lifting of all curbs on family visits and money transfers for Cuban Americans with family still living on the island. The change in policy was designed “to reach out to the Cuban people in support of their desire to freely determine their country’s future,” according to the White House.
The elder of the two Castro brothers' 50 year old dynasty in the enslaved island of Cuba already has that distinctive and tell tail oder of cypress and flower wreaths, and the world awaits the news like horses snorting in excited anticipation at the starting gates.
In this new policy Cuban exiles will now be allowed to send more types of humanitarian aid to Cuba, from clothing and personal hygiene items to seeds and fishing equipment, all items most Cubans cannot afford. In addition, U.S. telecommunications companies can apply for licenses to do business in Cuba, such as setting up television and cellular roaming services between the U.S. and Cuba.
The revamped Cuba policy was generally well-received. But it left many unsatisfied. On the one hand, it did not go far enough for some Cuban exiles and other Americans who want more engagement with the island and an outright end to the 47-year-old embargo. On the other hand, it went too far for Miami’s old guard Cuban exiles who fled the island in the 1960s.
How much more the Obama administration plans to do on Cuba policy remains an open question. Past administrations have preferred to keep up the economic stranglehold on Cuba, figuring there was little to be won and plenty to be lost in electoral terms, due to the hard-line Cuban American clout in South Florida. Cuba policy thus became more of a domestic electoral policy issue, rather than a matter of foreign policy.
But that may be changing with the maturing of a new generation of politically more liberal-minded Cuban Americans. The Obama administration seems keen to capitalize on this. But so far Obama has shown little sign of willingness to go beyond his campaign promise of lifting restrictions on Cuban family travel and remittances. Indeed, he has stood by the embargo, saying Cuba needs to send some positive signals first.
Just days after announcing the new measures, Obama cautioned not to expect changes to come too swiftly. A relationship that has been frozen for 50 years, he said, “won’t thaw overnight.” Instead, Obama called for a “transition” in U.S. policy toward Cuba, recognizing that the embargo has failed to bring about political change on the island, yet saying the embargo should stand until Cuba moves forward with political reforms of its own.
Meanwhile, with Congress and the White House consumed with major initiatives on health care, climate change and revival of the economy, the White House and Democratic leaders may be reluctant to engage in an ugly sideshow over Cuba, led by President Raúl Castro and his ailing elder brother, Fidel.
Obama may also be concerned that moving too quickly on Cuba could provide unnecessary fodder for those who already have branded him a socialist. Indeed, there is a limit to what the president can do regarding Cuba. In the wake of the 1996 shoot down over the Florida Straits of two Cuban exile planes belonging to Brothers to the Rescue, president Clinton signed the 1996 Helms-Burton bill, which tightened existing sanctions and codified them into law. Removing the embargo would therefore require another act of Congress and that’s not something it appears ready to do quite yet.
Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, agrees Cuban Americans should be allowed to visit relatives in Cuba more often, but he argues the new measure goes too far. “Unrestricted travel would just allow Castro to rake off the 25 to 30 percent that he rakes off everything,” he says.
Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla., who was born in Cuba, says the Castro regime has continued to punish dissidents and doesn’t deserve more favorable treatment. Plus, he says, tourists from Europe, Canada and Latin America have been visiting Cuba for years, with no apparent benefit for the freedom of the Cuban people. “I believe there can be nuanced changes in policy toward Cuba, but that has to be earned by the Cuban government,” he says.
The Obama administration’s policy shift recognizes a major change in the landscape of U.S.-Cuban relations, analysts say. In November, Obama did not win the majority of the Cuban American vote in South Florida, but he did win the majority of votes of younger U.S.-born Cuban Americans under 30. “There’s no downside in Cuban American politics for Obama,” says Alfredo Balsera, a Cuban American communications consultant who worked on the Obama campaign. “There’s only an upside.”
A recent poll conducted by Florida International University indicates that the Miami exile community’s longtime insistence on isolating the Castro regime does not dominate the political scene any more. Sixty-six percent of Cuban Americans support lifting the travel restrictions and 65 percent support sending money. Other polls show the wider public embracing a new approach to Cuba as well. According to a Gallup poll in April, 60 percent of Americans favor re-establishing diplomatic ties with Cuba and 51 percent favor lifting the trade embargo.
Indeed, there is one aspect of the embargo that does begin to look vulnerable. Legislation is already working its way through both houses that would end the travel restrictions for all U.S. citizens, not just Cuban exiles. “The wild card here is Congress. I think Congress might drive this as much as the administration,” says Daniel Waltz, a trade expert who follows Cuba policy at the Washington law firm Patton Boggs.
Advocates insist the bill, which enjoys the backing of senior Republicans and Democrats and several busi- ness and human rights groups, is building enough mo- mentum to pass during this session of Congress. They see it as the first step toward ending the 47-year-old U.S. embargo that severely restricts U.S. dealings with Cuba.
Supporters say allowing U.S. citizens to travel freely to Cuba—and spend money there—would help spread democratic ideals and eventually create opportunities for trade and development. Opponents insist that al- lowing U.S. citizens to frolic on Cuban beaches will only enrich and legitimize the communist regime.
It remains to be seen whether U.S. companies will be able to introduce their wireless and cable technology into Cuba, a state that tightly controls access to information. But that misses the point. By authorizing U.S. companies to off er these services, the Obama administration hopes to show that the United States is willing to open up to Cuba, if Cuba is willing to open up in return.
As more Cuban Americans visit the island, the political and economic pressure for improved ties is likely to build. “It opened my eyes,” says Ricky Arriola, a 40-year-old Cuban American CEO of a Miami-based marketing company, who visited Cuba for the first time in March. “I learned more [about Cuba] in a week there than during 40 years in Miami.”
He was especially surprised how freely Cubans expressed their opinions. “The man on the street is well-informed,” he says, noting how news is pirated from U.S. television channels.
Carlos Saladrigas, 60, a successful Cuban American businessman who co-chairs the Cuba Study Group, was one of a handful of Cuba experts who earlier this year produced a detailed road map for U.S. policy at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. The report was led by Carlos Pascual, a high-flying Cuban American diplomat who has been nominated as the new U.S. ambassador to Mexico. The group was invited to the State Department for a 90-minute meeting with Thomas Shannon, top diplomat for Latin America.
They were assured that Obama’s announced policy shift was only a first step. An overall review of Cuba policy is being conducted before any more moves are announced. But how far the Obama administration opens up will depend on how far Cuba is prepared to go.
“The U.S. is willing to move as quickly as Cuba is willing to move,” says Joe Garcia, the former director of the influential Cuban American National Foundation in Miami. Garcia, a leading South Florida Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for Congress in November, was briefed in advance by the White House on Obama’s new Cuba policy. “But we are still going to move anyway. By no means is this the end of what Obama is going to do, regardless of what Castro says,” Garcia added, referring to negative comments about Obama by Fidel Castro.
Garcia, who Obama recently named the Director of the Office of Minority Economic Impact in the U.S. Department of Energy, described the early exchanges between the Obama administration and Cuba as “more about defining the terms” of a future dialogue than a sign of irreconcilable differences.
Either way, Obama seems to have broad support for his new policy, even among Cuban Americans, allowing him leeway to explore other avenues with Cuba. Dan Restrepo, Latin America policy advisor at the National Security Council, says, “It’s very important to help open up space so the Cuban people can work on the kind of grassroots democracy that is necessary to move Cuba to a better future.”
The Obama administration also faces unprecedented pressure from Latin America to improve its relations with Cuba, including allowing the communist island to be re-admitted to the 35-member Organization of American States, the top hemispheric forum for debating policy and resolving conflicts.
At a meeting in Honduras in early June the United States agreed to allow Cuba back into the OAS, as long as the island met the standards set by the group governing individual and political freedoms, such as respect for human rights and multiparty elections.
The U.S.’s allies in Latin America insist that repairing relations with Cuba is a crucial starting point for improving relations with the region overall. “There is nothing any more from the political ... sociological ... humanitarian perspective that impedes the reestablishment of relations between the United States and Cuba,” said Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after a White House visit in April.
By mid July, U.S. and Cuban officials held a first round of immigration talks for the first time since 2003 with both sides declaring the talks “fruitful” and proposing a next round in December. At the same time, the Obama administration maintained suspension of enforcement of part of the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, which permits legal actions against firms trading in U.S. properties nationalized during the Cuban Revolution.
It remains uncertain how Cuba will react to Obama’s policy. Though the Cuban government stands to benefit from remittance fees and increased occupancy rates in state-owned hotels, new arrivals also present a challenge to Cuba’s tightly controlled political system.
Cuban officials will surely have noted the White House announcement stressed the need to lessen Cubans’ dependence on the Castro regime, while pressing Cuba on “core democratic values,” including respect for “basic human, political and economic rights of all its citizens.”
So far the signals coming from Cuba are not entirely clear, prompting some experts to warn that there is zero hope of improving relations with Cuba while Fidel Castro is alive.
On the one hand Cuban president Raúl Castro has on several occasions offered an olive branch and welcomed Obama’s new Cuba policy initiative in April. In an off-the-cuff speech, he even went as far as to say Cuba might have made some “errors” and was willing to enter into talks with Washington about “everything,” from human rights to press freedom and political prisoners.
But Fidel Castro has been less effusive in his response to the Obama administration, writing that his brother had been “misinterpreted” and that his words did not mean that Cuba was willing to change its political system.
It’s hard to ignore a voice as powerful as Fidel’s. His health has improved of late, now three years after he was forced to step down due to illness. He has received several visits from foreign heads of state, and publishes his regular “Reflections.” He is also still the first secretary of the Cuban Communist Party, one of the nation’s top posts.
Whatever the differences between the Castro brothers, there is no question that a debate is underway in Cuba in the run up to a major Communist Party congress scheduled for later this year. Cuba faces huge economic challenges as it copes with rising import costs and falling revenue for nickel, its main export.
If Washington wants to get a better understanding of what is going on there, it makes more sense to engage Cuba, argues Saladrigas. “Our policy needs to lessen the cost of change,” he says. “The more we insist on an all-or-nothing approach, where they have to lose for us to win, then people who argue for change in Cuba do not have a viable alternative.”
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